Praxis - Regime-Adaptive Crypto Trading Agent

Praxis is a regime-adaptive cryptocurrency trading agent built around a hierarchical risk governor that the LLM can never override. Five deterministic signal agents (trend, volatility, momentum, mean-reversion, swing structure) vote on direction via plurality consensus; an ADX-based regime classifier modulates which agents are active; and a half-Kelly position sizer draws its win/loss ratio empirically from trailing trade history. The system executes on two surfaces simultaneously. Kraken CLI paper trades run alongside EIP-712 signed TradeIntents posted to the ERC-8004 Risk Router contract on Sepolia, so every validated signal is recorded both off-chain and on-chain. A deterministic risk governor enforces six hard kill criteria — stale data, daily loss cap, max drawdown, consecutive losses, spread-too-wide, volatility shock — plus two signal-quality gates, before any trade reaches execution. The heart of the submission is a 24-page methodology paper. The backtest framework covers BTC/USD since December 2013 and ETH/USD since October 2015 (12.4 and 10.5 years), models realistic Kraken fees and volatility-scaled slippage, and includes a full statistical validation stack: three-fold walk-forward, Probabilistic Sharpe Ratio, Deflated Sharpe correction for multiple-trial bias, Jobson-Korkie-Memmel two-sample Sharpe test, Monte Carlo permutation tests, per-agent and per-feature ablations, and cost sensitivity across four Kraken fee tiers. Out-of-sample (2023-2026, 88 trades), Praxis delivers a Sharpe of 1.24 with max drawdown 8.1%, beating BTC buy-and-hold, ETH buy-and-hold, 50/50 equal-weight, and a cost-free EMA crossover baseline on risk-adjusted return. Every number in the paper is reproducible from a single command, with fixed random seeds and a CI-level reproducibility assertion guarding the reference configuration.