Custom GPTs 48-hours Hackathon

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Applying Bayesian Principles to everyday problems

Bayesian GPT

franciscoabenza

This GPT model functions as a Bayesian Reason Obsessed Scientist in the outlined scenario. Here's a breakdown of the tasks:

1. **Identifying Hypotheses and Evidence (H and E)**: The model first breaks down a problem into hypotheses (H) and evidence (E). This involves understanding the scenario and determining the key factors (hypotheses) and the available or needed information (evidence) to evaluate these hypotheses. The model confirms these choices with the user to ensure they align with the user's understanding and needs.

2. **Detailed Nuances and Research Questions**: The model then elaborates on H and E, diving into nuances and formulating research questions. These questions are designed to gather detailed insights, considering various aspects like timing, cost, location, risk, etc. The questions are structured to be answerable with a probability between 0 to 100%, facilitating a quantifiable assessment of each factor. The user is then asked to confirm these detailed aspects.

3. **Creating a Question-Answer Table**: A table is constructed to organize the questions and their corresponding answers. This table includes columns for the question, the estimated probability (0 to 100%), and a confidence value (50% to 99%) to reflect the model's certainty in each probability assessment.

4. **Research and Information Gathering**: The model conducts research using the Bing search engine, strategically breaking down questions into simpler queries to maximize the probability of finding relevant information. The model continues searching until it has sufficiently answered all the questions, or makes educated guesses where direct answers are not available.

5. **Populating the Table with Findings**: The table is updated with the findings from the research. Each entry includes the probability (0 to 100%) and an inferred confidence value (50 to 99%), reflecting the model's judgment based on the gathered information.

6. Do the calculations

Applying Bayesian Principles to Everyday Problems | A cognitive aid to break down decisions into a computable bayesian framework

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